فصلنامه تحقیقات اقتصادی
پیاپی 143 (تابستان 1402)

In a situation where water supply constraints have increased due to population growth and economic development, as well as a lack of a suitable consumption pattern, ecological concerns in the socio-economic environment regarding the optimal allocation of water among consumers have become an important issue. Varamin plain basin is located in the southeast of Tehran and produced the majority of agricultural production in this area. Since, the agriculture is the main and the largest consumer of groundwater in this region, so the water crisis has been affected by the pattern of groundwater exploitation. In this paper, agricultural behavior of water consumption was analyzed in the framework of three perspectives: a competitive, a constancy of time preferences and a time inconsistency of preferences during the thirty-year period from the 1368-69 to 1397-98. In order to assess this hypothesis, the current state of groundwater consumption was compared to one of three scenarios presented. In the competitive approach of water consumption, neoclassical equilibrium condition of efficient market was employed. However, in the other two scenarios, the discrete dynamic optimization technique was used to extract the behavioral pattern of water consumption. The conclusion indicated that farmers dealing with groundwater as the main source of agricultural water supply had a non-optimal pattern of time inconsistency in their consumption from a psychological point of view. Therefore, changing the status quo and ensuring the effectiveness of the water policy require the modification of the behavioral pattern of water consumption in farming.

This study aims at investigating the determinants on unemployment duration of high level educated individuals in Iran. To achieve this purpose, the information of Labor Force Survey in 2020 and Competing Risk Model approach with transitions out of unemployment by exiting toward well matched or wrong matched position, have been used.The results show that individuals with short-cycle tertiary education are less likely to get a well matched position while Individuals with short-cycle tertiary education are more likely to get a wrong matched position. Among the major educational groups, the Humanities and Arts as well as Health were more likely to achieve a well matched position and less likely to achieve a wrong matched position. Females are more likely to achieve a well matched position than males. High level educated individuals in rural areas are more (less) likely to achieve a wrong matched (well matched) position. With increasing age, the possibility of getting a well matched and wrong matched position will decrease. The single compared to married individuals and those with no experiences compared to experienced individuals, were less likely to get a well matched and wrong matched position. Finally, when the unemployment rate increases, the risk of getting a well matched (wrong matched) position is reduced (increased).

The government's indebtedness to banks stands as one of Iran's most pressing issues within its monetary and banking system. This predicament has precipitated several adverse consequences, including the cost of funds for banks, elevated interest rates on loans, an unrestrained surge in the money supply, and a diminishing capacity for banks to extend loans. To tackle this challenge, some economists with emphasis on endogenous nature of money, propose a remedy grounded in credit easing. this approach entails settling the government's debt to banks by effecting adjustments on the asset side of the Central Bank's balance sheet. However, the practical execution of this policy hinges on the utilization of Central Bank resources, raising concerns about a sudden surge in money supply and potential adverse impacts on other economic variables, notably inflation. This has cast doubt on the feasibility of implementing such a strategy. In this research, we delved into the fundamental principles and prerequisites of adopting the credit easing policy in Iran. To evaluate the potential outcomes of implementing this policy, we employ the stock flow consistent model. Our findings reveal that settling the government's debt to banks through the utilization of Central Bank resources leads to an expansion in the monetary base, a reduction in money supply, an upswing in real GDP, and a decrease in both inflation and interest rates when juxtaposed with the baseline scenario.

Two theories have prevailed in the economic literature about the origins of money. According to the commodity theory of money, money has spontaneously emerged from the barter economy. In credit theory of money, since money is defined as an abstract unit of measurement, the origin of money coincides with the origin of writing. Credit money theory shows that the first standardized money of account emerged from ancient Egypt, Mesopotamia, and Greece due to the need for accounting records of payments and receipts of the central institution (government-temple). Once the general unit of account is established, credits and liabilities can be called in monetary units, thus we can reach the historical origins of money. This paper uses analytical-descriptive and documentary research methods to explain the incorrect reasons of the commodity theory of money. Eventually, the origin of money is expressed from the point of view of the credit theory of money.

In this research, the index of economic well-being, concentrating on four aspects of consumption flow, wealth stocks, income distribution, and economic security has been calculated during the period of 1350-1400 in Iran. Then, the effect of income inequality and inflation on economic welfare is evaluated in two forms symmetric and asymmetric, through two approaches of linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag. The results of symmetric estimation represent that in the long run, income inequality has an insignificant impact on economic welfare, While according to the asymmetric approach, only increases in income inequality have a negative impact on economic welfare, and decreases have an inconsiderable impact on it. Besides that, according to expectation, the inflation rate has a negative effect on economic welfare, in a way that the impact of increases in inflation on economic welfare is far more than the effects of decreases in inflation. In addition, it is also laid bare that, the variable of unemployment rate negatively and real GDP per capital positively affect economic welfare. The studies of this research, reveal that targeting declining income inequality singly is not capable of increasing the welfare in Iran. It is suggested to apply a sort of policy package for reducing the inflation rate which does not lead to intensification of income inequality.

Generally, the various economies can be affected by balance of payments shocks based on their structures. The purpose of the paper is to evaluate the effects of different balance of payments shocks including shocks of oil export, non-oil export, consumption import, intermediate import, and capital import on the welfare losses. It should be mentioned that the macroeconomic environment of a country can be effective in deepening or reducing the impact of balance of payments shocks. For this purpose, based on the New Keynesian approach, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model has been developed and simulated for Iran's economy. The results show that the real exchange rate is the most important channel in transmission of balance of payments shocks. Also, the shocks of oil and non-oil exports cause the biggest welfare losses, respectively. Moreover, the results of import shocks mention that although the output loss caused by the shocks of intermediate and capital imports as production inputs is important, but the shock of consumption import through the real exchange rate fluctuations causes the more welfare losses than other type of imports. Hence, to reduce the welfare losses caused by the balance of payments shocks, stabilization of the foreign exchange revenues from oil exports, diversification of the non-oil exports along with the promotion of domestic production and stabilization of the real exchange rate by conducting proper monetary and fiscal policies, are necessary.